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The great industrial rotation continues - Country and Sector risks Barometer

Signs of the global economic slowdown continued to accumulate at the beginning of 2019: companies are much less confident than a year ago, and global trade is showing signs of fatigue.

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Country risk assessment map - April 2019

New edition of the country risk map. Consult, download and print the map of the 161 countries assessed by Coface.

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Latin America: Brazil and Mexico’s oil industries – opposite policies?

In the context of a global oil market that is likely to remain volatile, the two largest Latin American economies – Brazil and Mexico – are expected to implement significant changes in their energy policies in the medium term. Both countries have appointed new presidents in the last year following polarised elections: in Brazil the right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro took office in January 2019, while December 2018 saw the arrival of left-wing André Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO)1. Similarly, the two oil industries share two main common features: their state-owned companies have experienced significant financial and governance issues, and both countries are crude oil exporters and net oil derivative importers. Conversely, in terms of energy policies, they appear to be taking opposite directions.

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China Payment Survey 2019: Longer delays as growth falters

The Chinese economy experienced some challenges in 2018 . Corporate bond defaults in US dollars quadrupled, reaching an amount of USD 16 billion, while the number of bankruptcy cases settled through the Supreme Court of the People’s Republic of China spiked to 6,646 (...)

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Poland Payment Survey 2019: Robust economic growth has not eliminated payment delays

The third edition of Coface’s survey on payment experiences in Poland was carried out in December 2018 with 293 companies participating in the study.

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Turkey’s economic slowdown continues, but exports offer some support

Turkey is experiencing a severe economic slowdown, coupled with a jump in inflation, as a result of the sharp depreciation of the lira during 2018.

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Country risk assessment map - January 2019

Country risk assessment map - January 2019

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Corporate insolvencies in France: all good things come to an end

As this decline in French growth can chiefly be attributed to household consumption, sectors such as personal services, food retail, and automotive have been the most affected by the rebound in insolvencies.

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Asia Corporate Payment Survey 2018: Regional giants grapple with rising credit risks

Coface’s 2018 Asia Corporate Payment Survey covers nine economies. Data collection took place during the fourth quarter of 2017, and valid responses were collected from almost 3,000 companies. Respondents in Asia were under pressure to further extend their payment terms (...)

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Barometer country and sector risks barometer Q2 2018

Rising sovereign spreads in the eurozone, increased protectionism, higher oil prices, capital outflows from major emerging countries: warning signals multiplied in the second quarter of 2018. Many of these provoke a feeling of déjà vu, evoking the 2012-13 period. At that time, the International Monetary Fund1 (IMF) stressed that the crisis in the euro area was still relevant, and that rising geopolitical tensions and their consequences on oil prices
were among the main risks weighing on global growth. And, although the IMF reminded us that optimism was in order with regard to the American economy, the risks of falling back into recession (“double-dip”) after the brief 2010-
2011 lull made headlines in many countries throughout 2012. World trade was struggling to recover, in part because of continued protectionist measures from 2009 onwards.

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Country risk assessment map : 2nd quarter 2018 publication

160 countries under the magnifying glass

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Sector risk assessments - 2nd quarter 2018

13 MAJOR SECTORS ASSESSED WORLDWIDE

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Race for market share in Africa: the European pack is catching up with the French breakaway

The loss of French influence is not only attributable to China: other major emerging countries, as well as some European neighbours, have entered the African market.

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Taking stock of global metal sector trends and outlook

Global metals sector: prices to continue to rise in 2018, ahead of a possible slight decline in 2019.

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Turkey Payment Survey 2018: Payment terms expand amid positive economic expectations

This is the fi rst corporate payment survey in Turkey aiming at indicating how payment terms stand in different sectors, how companies manage credi t management practices and evaluate future payment experience (...)

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Political Risk in Latin America: Back to the future?

Latin America has experienced a diffi cult period since 2014. The slump in commodity prices has impacted activity via several channels (...)

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Western Balkans and the European Union: political ties lagging behind economic ones

Despite regional conflicts, the 2007-08 financial crisis, and the 2009-11 eurozone crisis, Western Balkans countries have developed a close economic proximity with the European Union via a number of regional and bilateral agreements. However, due to institutional, economic, and diplomatic obstacles, accession to the EU will be a long process. At the same time, due to the region’s strategic importance and with the reinforcement of membership conditions, accession (or a pre-accession status) is likely to happen – especially as membership would divert the region from other
interested parties (Russia, China).

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Currency Risk in Africa: Easing in 2018, but reserves have melted

The exchange rate risk is still relevant on the African continent, as evidenced by the depreciation of the Angolan kwanza by more than 30% since the partial liberalization of the exchange rate regime in January 2018. The shock of falling commodity prices, particularly oil prices from summer 2014 onwards, destabilized many African countries. In the wake of the poor performance of its main economies (Nigeria, South Africa, Angola), the region’s growth slowed to its lowest level for 20 years in 2016. In addition to the slowdown in activity, commodity price developments have resulted in deteriorating terms of trade and downward pressure on most African currencies.

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Country and sector risks barometers Q1-2018 : Beyond the peak of global growth

The leading Western economies continued to perform well during the first quarter of 2018. The United States (US) economy is expected to remain robust this year, with a GDP growth forecast of 2.3%.

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The new Mediterranean trade routes

Integration is slowly declining in the mediterranean. Nevertheless, new trade routes have opened.

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