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Barometer country and sector risks barometer Q2 2018

Rising sovereign spreads in the eurozone, increased protectionism, higher oil prices, capital outflows from major emerging countries: warning signals multiplied in the second quarter of 2018. Many of these provoke a feeling of déjà vu, evoking the 2012-13 period. At that time, the International Monetary Fund1 (IMF) stressed that the crisis in the euro area was still relevant, and that rising geopolitical tensions and their consequences on oil prices
were among the main risks weighing on global growth. And, although the IMF reminded us that optimism was in order with regard to the American economy, the risks of falling back into recession (“double-dip”) after the brief 2010-
2011 lull made headlines in many countries throughout 2012. World trade was struggling to recover, in part because of continued protectionist measures from 2009 onwards.

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Country risk assessment map : 2nd quarter 2018 publication

160 countries under the magnifying glass

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Sector risk assessments - 2nd quarter 2018

13 MAJOR SECTORS ASSESSED WORLDWIDE

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Race for market share in Africa: the European pack is catching up with the French breakaway

The loss of French influence is not only attributable to China: other major emerging countries, as well as some European neighbours, have entered the African market.

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Taking stock of global metal sector trends and outlook

Global metals sector: prices to continue to rise in 2018, ahead of a possible slight decline in 2019.

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Turkey Payment Survey 2018: Payment terms expand amid positive economic expectations

This is the fi rst corporate payment survey in Turkey aiming at indicating how payment terms stand in different sectors, how companies manage credi t management practices and evaluate future payment experience (...)

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Political Risk in Latin America: Back to the future?

Latin America has experienced a diffi cult period since 2014. The slump in commodity prices has impacted activity via several channels (...)

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Western Balkans and the European Union: political ties lagging behind economic ones

Despite regional conflicts, the 2007-08 financial crisis, and the 2009-11 eurozone crisis, Western Balkans countries have developed a close economic proximity with the European Union via a number of regional and bilateral agreements. However, due to institutional, economic, and diplomatic obstacles, accession to the EU will be a long process. At the same time, due to the region’s strategic importance and with the reinforcement of membership conditions, accession (or a pre-accession status) is likely to happen – especially as membership would divert the region from other
interested parties (Russia, China).

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Currency Risk in Africa: Easing in 2018, but reserves have melted

The exchange rate risk is still relevant on the African continent, as evidenced by the depreciation of the Angolan kwanza by more than 30% since the partial liberalization of the exchange rate regime in January 2018. The shock of falling commodity prices, particularly oil prices from summer 2014 onwards, destabilized many African countries. In the wake of the poor performance of its main economies (Nigeria, South Africa, Angola), the region’s growth slowed to its lowest level for 20 years in 2016. In addition to the slowdown in activity, commodity price developments have resulted in deteriorating terms of trade and downward pressure on most African currencies.

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Country and sector risks barometers Q1-2018 : Beyond the peak of global growth

The leading Western economies continued to perform well during the first quarter of 2018. The United States (US) economy is expected to remain robust this year, with a GDP growth forecast of 2.3%.

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The new Mediterranean trade routes

Integration is slowly declining in the mediterranean. Nevertheless, new trade routes have opened.

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The singularity of political risk in Central and Eastern Europe

With the ongoing wave of elections in the Central and Eastern Europe region, CEE countries are experiencing a key period of change in a context of political risk and economic acceleration (...)

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Registration document 2017

Registration document including the Financial report.

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China Corporate Payment Survey 2018: payment delays increase despite rapid and robust growth

The Chinese economy staged a comeback in 2017. GDP ticked up from 6.7% in 2016 to 6.9% in 2017, favoured by strong demand, as well as loose monetary and fiscal policy settings. As a result, risk managers have become more complacent, both in terms of their economic expectations and their risk management procedures.

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Clash of the Titans: China’s rise fuels competition with Japan’s interests in Asia

China has undoubtedly modelled itself as the new champion of globalisation. Nowhere is this felt more strongly than in Asia (...)

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Mexico Automotive Industry: Headwinds coming from the North

The Mexican automotive industry has experienced strong growth since the signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1993. (...)

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Poland Payment Survey 2018: Payment delays mounting amid robust economic growth

The second edition of Coface’s survey on payment experiences in Poland was carried out in December 2017 (...)

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Companies in France: fewer business insolvencies, but still just as many “zombies”

The number of corporate insolvencies in France has continued to decline at the beginning of 2018: -8.3% year-on-year to end of January (...)

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Coface handbook: Country & Sector risks 2018

Download the Coface handbook about Country & Sector risks 2018. Tools for identifying, assessing and monitoring the risks businesses are facing.

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Sector Risk Assessments - January 2018

Infographic - Sector Risk Assessments - First Quarter 2018

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