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The COVID-19 crisis has triggered a discussion on increasing supply chain resilience to foreign supply shocks.
Before the pandemic’s arrival in Europe, a lockdown of factories that temporarily suspended manufacturing in China put the supply of intermediary goods at risk. In order to limit such risks, supply chain managers are likely to diversify their sources of supply.
Thanks to the efforts of the authorities, the diversification of the Russian economy is progressing, particularly in certain sectors such as information technology, pharmaceuticals, the automotive industry and the agrifood sector. In the latter case, the process was encouraged by Russian counter-sanctions adopted as a response to Western sanctions.Mehr Informationen
In 2018, the Netherlands were the sixth-largest goods exporter in the world. In the service-exports category, the Dutch placed eighth in 2015. Considering exports relative to GDP, the Netherlands took third place in 2015 (right behind Ireland and Switzerland). However, times have changed...Mehr Informationen
Analyses show that the favourable economic environment was beneficial for the region's 500 largest businesses, which translated into higher revenues. However, various challenges caused net profits to decrease. Competition is getting more intense and a higher turnover is required to be classified in the ranking compared to previous years.Mehr Informationen
Despite improving economic performances across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), monetary and financial conditions remain tighter compared with before 2015. Access to financing remains one of the key issues for companies, particularly for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Loan growth in the region has recovered somewhat thanks to higher oil prices, but it remains below its historical average.Mehr Informationen
Trade wars, volatile global capital flows, slowing growth in the United States (U.S.) and Europe, Brexit — businesses in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region had to navigate a number of political, economic, and financial pitfalls last year. To better understand the impact that such events have on companies, Coface conducts annual corporate payment surveys across the world. The 2019 Asia-Pacific Corporate Payment Survey covers nine economies in the APAC region. For the survey, data was collected from over 3,000 companies during the fourth quarter of 2018.Mehr Informationen
Africa has seen a bevy of political events in recent months. After the deterioration of the security situation in the Sahel, as well as the forced departures of historical leaders from Algeria and Sudan via the streets, where will the political risks manifest in the second half of the year?Mehr Informationen
The first part of 2019 was marked by the decline in world trade, which will decrease in volume over the year as a whole according to our forecasts (-0.7%), despite a slight recovery expected in the second half of 2019.Mehr Informationen
China has rapidly become a big player in 5G technology, thanks to the government’s strategy and its support of high investment in Research and Development (R&D). This new technology is part of the Made in China 2025 initiative, through which the Chinese government targets self-sufficiency in high-end industries. China coordinated its approach to 5G and some successes are already visible. For example, 40% of global patents for current 5G network standards are from Chinese firms. Moreover, Chinese companies are set to benefit from 5G. Huawei is the global leader in network infrastructures; it currently holds 29% of the market (...)Mehr Informationen
During the first four months of 2019, the rate of corporate insolvencies in France increased by +0.8%. This rate was particularly high during January and February, mainly due to the repercussions of the "gilets jaunes" (yellow vests) movement; however, the increasing rate of insolvencies declined in March and April. Nonetheless, Coface anticipates that, despite resilient economic growth, insolvencies will increase by +1.7% over the whole of 2019 (…)Mehr Informationen
The luxury market is unique, mainly due to the fact that its products are consumed for social distinction. This has helped companies in the segment to outperform other sector-segments over the past years. Nevertheless, the luxury market is facing important challenges, notably regarding counterfeit products, a risk for companies, and e-commerce, which is disrupting how business is conducted. In addition, the market is not immune to challenging economic conditions. Global economic activity is currently experiencing a slowdown: Coface forecasts a global GDP growth rate of 2.9% in 2019 after 3.2% in 2018, and this will have an impact on some luxury products. Looking ahead, the rise of emerging markets’ middle classes – especially in China – presents great opportunities. Despite global economic slowdown, we are therefore expecting the luxury retail market overall to be resilient, notably benefiting from the rise of Chinese consumers’ appetite for luxury.Mehr Informationen
Central Asia is both a partner and a trade gateway for China and Europe. It is located on two branches of the New Silk Road. Despite criticism, China is the most involved in the development of Central Asian corridors. This deployment is not obvious given the competition from other routes and poor regional cooperation. While Russian influence remains significant through expatriate remittances, its military bases, and culture, it is being supplanted by China in economic matters.Mehr Informationen
When Narendra Modi ran for Prime Minister in 2014, he pledged to boost the competitiveness of India’s industrial sector to promote growth. Five years later, the economy is in a better position, but many of the structural fragilities that Modi inherited continue to afflict India today.Mehr Informationen
In the context of a global oil market that is likely to remain volatile, the two largest Latin American economies – Brazil and Mexico – are expected to implement significant changes in their energy policies in the medium term. Both countries have appointed new presidents in the last year following polarised elections: in Brazil the right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro took office in January 2019, while December 2018 saw the arrival of left-wing André Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO)1. Similarly, the two oil industries share two main common features: their state-owned companies have experienced significant financial and governance issues, and both countries are crude oil exporters and net oil derivative importers. Conversely, in terms of energy policies, they appear to be taking opposite directions.Mehr Informationen
The Chinese economy experienced some challenges in 2018 . Corporate bond defaults in US dollars quadrupled, reaching an amount of USD 16 billion, while the number of bankruptcy cases settled through the Supreme Court of the People’s Republic of China spiked to 6,646 (...)
As this decline in French growth can chiefly be attributed to household consumption, sectors such as personal services, food retail, and automotive have been the most affected by the rebound in insolvencies.Mehr Informationen
Coface’s 2018 Asia Corporate Payment Survey covers nine economies. Data collection took place during the fourth quarter of 2017, and valid responses were collected from almost 3,000 companies. Respondents in Asia were under pressure to further extend their payment terms (...)Mehr Informationen
Rising sovereign spreads in the eurozone, increased protectionism, higher oil prices, capital outflows from major emerging countries: warning signals multiplied in the second quarter of 2018. Many of these provoke a feeling of déjà vu, evoking the 2012-13 period. At that time, the International Monetary Fund1 (IMF) stressed that the crisis in the euro area was still relevant, and that rising geopolitical tensions and their consequences on oil prices
were among the main risks weighing on global growth. And, although the IMF reminded us that optimism was in order with regard to the American economy, the risks of falling back into recession (“double-dip”) after the brief 2010-
2011 lull made headlines in many countries throughout 2012. World trade was struggling to recover, in part because of continued protectionist measures from 2009 onwards.
This is the fi rst corporate payment survey in Turkey aiming at indicating how payment terms stand in different sectors, how companies manage credi t management practices and evaluate future payment experience (...)Mehr Informationen
Despite regional conflicts, the 2007-08 financial crisis, and the 2009-11 eurozone crisis, Western Balkans countries have developed a close economic proximity with the European Union via a number of regional and bilateral agreements. However, due to institutional, economic, and diplomatic obstacles, accession to the EU will be a long process. At the same time, due to the region’s strategic importance and with the reinforcement of membership conditions, accession (or a pre-accession status) is likely to happen – especially as membership would divert the region from other
interested parties (Russia, China).
The exchange rate risk is still relevant on the African continent, as evidenced by the depreciation of the Angolan kwanza by more than 30% since the partial liberalization of the exchange rate regime in January 2018. The shock of falling commodity prices, particularly oil prices from summer 2014 onwards, destabilized many African countries. In the wake of the poor performance of its main economies (Nigeria, South Africa, Angola), the region’s growth slowed to its lowest level for 20 years in 2016. In addition to the slowdown in activity, commodity price developments have resulted in deteriorating terms of trade and downward pressure on most African currencies.Mehr Informationen
The Chinese economy staged a comeback in 2017. GDP ticked up from 6.7% in 2016 to 6.9% in 2017, favoured by strong demand, as well as loose monetary and fiscal policy settings. As a result, risk managers have become more complacent, both in terms of their economic expectations and their risk management procedures.
Infographics - French organic food sector: how can it increase scale without abandoning its original principles?Mehr Informationen
The UK automotive industry is entering a dry period. The voices of the main UK industry representatives and their concerns regarding the negative effects of a potential hard Brexit appear to remain unheard (...)Mehr Informationen
While more than 30% of respondents said in 2015 that that the time between the transmission of invoice and collection was between 30 and 60 days, this share decreased to 24% of respondents in 2016 and 11% of respondents in 2017.Mehr Informationen
Central and Eastern Europe: Less business insolvencies despite temporary headwinds in the construction sectorMehr Informationen
Political changes in the US have caused uncertainty over the trade policies that could be implemented and the region’s vulnerability to tighter financial conditions. Since Donald Trump’s victory, the currencies of many emerging countries have fallen against the dollar. Mexico’s currency was the most greatly affected in the world, with 19 % depreciation against the USD in 2016Mehr Informationen
Labour markets in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region are continuing to improve.
Unemployment rates have reached the lowest levels ever recorded and most CEE economies are enjoying lower unemployment than the EU average
Coface’s payment survey confirms that sales on credit are being extensively used by Polish companies. Although credit periods have become common practice, it does not mean that receivables are being paid on time.Mehr Informationen
South Africa’s growth performance has been in decline since the global financial crisis. Since peaking in 2011, the growth rate (hit by lower commodity prices and power supply problems) has continued to slow.Mehr Informationen
Turkey’s economy experienced several shocks during 2015 and 2016. Heightened political uncertainties, regional tensions, the US rate hike process, the credit rating downgrade and domestic security issues, have all resulted in (...)Mehr Informationen
For this quarter, the result is clearly negative once again, as eight sectors have been downgraded and only one upgraded. The changes concern North America (increased risks in the retail, textile-clothing, paper-wood and transport sectors), Western Europe (downgrade of the agrofood sector) and Central Europe (downgrades for construction and IT & communications, but an upgrade for the transport sector) and Middle East (downgrade for IT & communications).Mehr Informationen
Despite the silent impact of the first arrow on Japan’s exports, the operating profits of Japanese manufacturers which have been mainly exported oriented surged, in part due to their pricing-to-market behaviour.Mehr Informationen
Poland has seen a slowing of its economy this year, compared to 2015. Nevertheless, growth is still continuing at a fair rate and, in fact, remains at a level which many other economies can only dream of.Mehr Informationen
French growth has taken a time-out in Q2. The political uncertainties in the United Kingdom, the strikes in May and the floods affecting Ile-deFrance are all likely suspects responsible for this surprise halt. However, the figures are expected to recover in Q3.Mehr Informationen
The importance of the Agrobusiness sector varies between the different North African economies. While on a regional level, the sector leads exports, on a country basis it differs. In Morroco, agribusiness benefits from government subsidies, as it contributes nearly 16% of GDP and provides employment for 40% of the population. Overall, across the main north African countries, the lowest level of risk is in Morocco...Mehr Informationen
In the light of the on-going structural reforms, the "tale of two Chinas" is resulting in sector wise winners and losers, linked to their growth potential in the medium and longer term, government policies and structural demand.Mehr Informationen
Sluggish global growth, characterised in particular by China's loss of momentum, shock to commodity prices… Sub-Saharan Africa has not been spared in the global tempest and seeks to maintain growth against wind and tide. The commodity producers are the most affected.Mehr Informationen
Bankruptcies drastically decreased in almost all countries in the region during the course of last year - especially in the four Northern Europe Region (NER) countries we focus on in this panorama, namely Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and Denmark.Mehr Informationen
Whatever their size, nationality or sector, we inform our customers about current market issues to assist them in controlling their financial risks. To do so, we provide our international business expertise, country and sector risk assessments, accurate data on 80 million companies worldwide and a range of scalable, innovative products that suit their needs and business strategy.Mehr Informationen
The current recession and the Carwash1 corruption scandal have impacted the first of these variables, while the second has reacted to rising unemployment, negative growth in real wages and deteriorating credit conditions. The government has also failed to contain the dangerous course of its expenses and a second year of primary fiscal deficit was reported in 2015– a clear sign of lack of fiscal discipline.Mehr Informationen
Sluggish growth, absence of inflationary pressures, ever more expansionary monetary policies and increased volatility in financial markets; these are four elements characterising the global economy in early 2016 (...)Mehr Informationen
Since 2003, Coface has been conducting annual surveys on business payment experience in China. In 2015, the average credit termes offered by China-based firms decreased again, reflecting a more prudent approach to granting credit facilities to customers. the overall payment experience in China deteriorated and remained very challenging in 2015.Mehr Informationen
After five years of sanctions, Iran is finally to rejoin the global community. The return of Iran should have an effect on international growth via the oil channel but, above all, will bring huge changes to Iran itself.Mehr Informationen
The German economy has changed its growth model during recent years. While internal demand (especially private consumption) – was sluggish and weak throughout most of the 2000s, it is currently the (...)Mehr Informationen
After US households in 2007-2008 and Eurozone states in 2011-2012, emerging countries are now getting their turn at the epicentre of the storm, in part because of excessive debt. How did that happen? Growth cut in half in the emerging world between 2010 and 2015, highly expansionary monetary policies after the Lehman Brothers crisis, and the drop in commodity prices since mid-2014 are all part of the answer.Mehr Informationen
During 2015, Turkey’s economy faced several challenges. On the political scene, the country went through two elections in 2015, bring to four the number of elections over the last two years. After talks to form a coalition government fell through following the June 7 general election, the country returned to the polls on November 1.Mehr Informationen
Retail trade benefits from good prospects of consumer demand which, however, will not eliminate challenges for the sector including an intense competition and the implementation of new levy for retailers. Foreign chains will remain dominant taking an advantage of their large-scale bargaining position and offering the most attractive prices for consumers even despite being charged by the new tax.Mehr Informationen
Tenuous but confirmed. These are the terms that best describe France’s current growth - as illustrated by the figures for the third quarter, published in early November. Household consumption has (...)Mehr Informationen
Brazil has grown over the last decade, as a result of the boom in commodity prices and strong household consumption. The country endured the 2008-2009 crisis, thanks to liquidity injections from public banks.Mehr Informationen
The increased economic activity in Poland already reached levels required to stabilise the number of company insolvencies. The current global economic situation could be summarised as a gradual recovery for advanced economies and turbulent times for emerging countries.Mehr Informationen
In a context of low growth, the global sectoral dynamics are mixed. In this overview we analyse five major sectors: automotive, energy, metals, information and communication technologies (ICT) and paper-wood, in North America, emerging Asia and in Western Europe.Mehr Informationen
European photovoltaic (PV) energy developed rapidly starting in 2010, thanks to national and European subsidies promoting its establishment in the energy landscape. But the increase in production capacity rapidly pushed down prices in a context of increased competition from China and a downturn in European business conditions.Mehr Informationen
The Chinese economy has been in the spotlight for several months: devaluation of the yuan, stock market collapse, falling property prices, fears of an excessive economic slowdown, doubts about the reliability of published data and, more generallyspeaking, uncertainties about the rebalancing process the authorities have launched. In this anxiety-provoking environment, other Asian countries seem to be the first potential victims in the event of a hard landing for the Chinese economy.Mehr Informationen
What are the impacts of lower oil prices on the gulf countries economy. Focus on Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain. What are the diversification strategies and the region’s integration with international trade. Focuses on the food and beverage sector in the UAE and automotive sector in Saudi Arabia.Mehr Informationen
Coface’s seventh annual study on the biggest 500 companies in Central and Eastern Europe ranks the businesses by their turnover and additionally analyses data such as number of employees, the framework of the companies, sectors and markets. In 2014, the CEE Top 500 companies generated a turnover of EUR 572 billion, which exceeds even half of the aggregated 2014 nominal GDP of those economies. The biggest companies were able to increase their turnover as well as workforce.Mehr Informationen
Growth in Latin America has been slowing down since 2011, and was estimated at 1.2 % in 2014 . This lacklustre result, caused by weak domestic fundamentals, were exacerbated by cyclical factors such as the decline of commodity prices - and particularly the plunge in oil prices experienced since the second half of 2014. 2015 will see the continuation of this downwards trend, with regional growth expected to weaken for the fifth year in a row.Mehr Informationen
In this first overview of company insolvencies in Europe, Coface examines the following question: Was the return to growth observed in Europe strong enough to bring about a lasting reduction in business failures?Mehr Informationen
The automotive sector plays an important role in the CEE’s economic activity. Thanks to low labour costs, the educated workforce, geographical proximity to Western European markets, tax incentives and the stabilising legal environment, CEE countries have become attractive destinations for investment by global car manufacturers.Mehr Informationen
After a decade of well-implemented reforms and high growth rates, the Turkish economy seems to be struggling to maintain the same growth performance. Coface expects a growth rate of 3.5% this year - still a solid rate, yet below the potential growth rate estimated at 5% and lower than some of the country’s peers.Mehr Informationen
Company insolvencies stabilized with a just minor drop by 0.5% as the regional average. Our scenario assumes that companies should experience further gradual decline of insolvencies this year facing good prospects for internal demand and more visible recovery of Eurozone as the CEE’s main trading partner.Mehr Informationen
This barometer sets out the latest trends for company insolvencies for the first four months of 2015 in France. After a 2.9% fall recorded for 2014, a level not observed since 2010 (-3.8%), the first four months of the year were marked by a rebound in insolvenciesMehr Informationen
Coface conducts an annual survey to examine corporate payment trends and experiences in the Asia-Pacific region. In 2014, the survey was conducted in 8 economies – Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Singapore and Taiwan, as well as, for the first time, Thailand. The study revealed some key indicators that showed signs of a (...)Mehr Informationen
The automotive industry in the United States, the"backbone of American industry" according to Barack Obama, was on the verge of bankruptcy at the time of the financial crisis, with a drop in sales of 35% between 2007 and 2009.Mehr Informationen
The changes in our sector assessments reflect the development of the world economy since the end of 2014, marked by the appreciation of the dollar against other currencies, the oil price collapse and gradual recovery in the Eurozone. These trends have had repercussions on most of the sectors we track.Mehr Informationen
Since the signature of the Pacto por Mexico in December 2012, an agreement struck by the three main political parties, the country has witnessed a variety of reforms. President Peña Nieto was efficient in securing cross-party support and big improvements, were made in 2013.Mehr Informationen
In this panorama we first set out a study examining how the advanced economies are facing up to the challenge of weak economic growth since the Lehman Brothers collapse, that is for the past seven years now! Some observers are even talking of "secular stagnation". But, in our view, not all the advanced economies are facing the same challenges regarding this risk of longterm stagnation. We believe that (...)Mehr Informationen
The Czech Republic is back on fast track. After falling into recession in 2012 and 2013 due to sharp fiscal consolidation and sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone, the economy regained momentum reaching solid growth rate of 2.0% in 2014 and should gain speed with 2.5% growth in 2015.Mehr Informationen
Ongoing economic scenario in Brazil remains sensitive, Coface expects GDP to break even in 2014 and activity should contract by 0.5% in 2015. Industry dropped by 3.2% in 2014 and will probably record another negative year in 2015. The year has just started, but it may reserve some negative surprises.Mehr Informationen
Coface conducts an annual survey of payment experience in China. With 80% of the survey respond-ents shared overdue experience and 56.7% of them saw an increase in overdue amount over the past year, the overall payment experience in China remained very challenging in 2014.Mehr Informationen
Latin America is a major producer of commodities and recent drop in oil prices is impacting countries of the region in different ways. Some of them may benefit from lower international quotation, others are negatively impacted already in the short term and finally a third group could be affected in the medium term only (...)Mehr Informationen
This barometer presents the new trend in business insolvencies. We are reviewing the results for 2014 and the first orientations for 2015 with insolvencies for January. After two consecutive years of growth, the number of insolvencies over 2014 had decreased by 2.9%.Mehr Informationen
The construction sector in Poland has undergone turbulent times. After the booming period related to increased demand for housing construction as well as massive public investments thanks to organizing the Euro 2012 football championship, the sector experienced a significant deteriorationMehr Informationen
Company insolvencies in Turkey: Rise in exchange rates and slowdown in domestic demand affected payment performance. Impaired profitability made payments difficult. Focus on some sector risks : Metal, Automotive, Food, Chemical, Construction, Retail, Textile & apparel.Mehr Informationen
How do the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) economies perform after the social and political turmoil caused by the socalled “Arab Spring” late in 2010? Have social and economic demands of protesters resulted in a healthier economic outlook in these countries? The panorama will focus on hydrocarbon sector for the GCC countries and on the textile sector for the North Africa region. It will also assess the latest trends in construction, tourism and automotive sectors across the MENA region to evaluate possible corporate risks.Mehr Informationen
The term "deflation" seems to be on everyone's lips in Europe these days, not just on those of economists. The buzz around the term is not surprising, as Eurozone inflation has been falling for the past three years. France is no exception (...)Mehr Informationen
Poland is a headline example of the country that didn’t record recession in recent years. However, in micro terms companies insolvencies have been on rise since 2008 and 883 bankruptcies in 2013 is even the highest result in 9 years history.Mehr Informationen
Panorama United Arab Emirates : A remarkable recovery after the debt crisis but financing needs still high
How wealthy is the UAE economy after the debt crisis? Figures indicate that after contracting around 5 percent in 2009, the UAE economy recorded gradually solid growth rates. The economy is expected to grow by 5 percent in 2014, after expanding around 5.2 percent in 2013.Mehr Informationen
The group’s 2013 activity report is available. Besides elements on 2013 performance, the report contains general information about Coface, missions, governance, businesses, offer and analysis of the world macroeconomic situation.Mehr Informationen
A broad spectrum of exciting reform plans have been announced, and the government had a series of follow-up actions. But in the near-term, potential negative impacts on the real economy as a result of the reform effort and credit risks associated with the rising cost of fund have to be watched out for.Mehr Informationen
Textiles - Upmarket positioning and innovation: Key to the success for the French and European textile industry?
You will find in it our usual barometer, which assesses the risks to which companies in fourteen key industrial sectors in emerging Asia, North America and Western Europe are exposed.
We have also included an analytical focus on European textiles. This traditional industry was affected very early by globalisation, and, in particular, competition from developing countries.
In this Panorama, you will find the Coface barometer, which analyzes the evolution of French insolvent companies between November 2012 and October 2013.
We then publish a study on insolvencies in the French construction sector, overrepresented in insolvencies compared to it weight in the economy.
Panorama Country Risk - October 2013
This panorama contains a study on household consumption in Asia. In the face of the 2008-2009 global crisis, followed by the sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone in 2011, Asian household consumption has been a source of relative resilience for the region’s economies.
This Panorama includes our global sector barometer, which analyses the situation in fourteen key economic sectors in three of the world‘s major regions (European Union, North America and Emerging Asia) through a single credit risk indicator.Mehr Informationen
Ranked seventh in the world (and the second largest emerging economy) by GDP size, Brazil is the archetypal emerging country. But, the Brazilians’ legendary optimism has been sorely tested for the last two years: Can the Brazilian economic engine be repaired?Mehr Informationen
Panorama Company Insolvencies - Spring 2013
This new Panorama contains the results of our Company Insolvency Monitor from April 2012 to April 2013 and the results of a study on insolvencies among Eastern European countries, a region experiencing a sharp rise in insolvencies rate.
Coface releases a series of economic reports and is pleased to announce the publication of its second Panorama sector report. Readers will find in it a global sector barometer which analyses the situation in fourteen key economic sectors.Mehr Informationen
Panorama Country Risk - March 2013
In this Panorama, Coface highlights the radical transformation of risks in emerging countries. While traditional country risk (sovereign risk, external vulnerability) has appreciably declined, three new risks are appearing and need to be monitored.
The 17th Country Risk Conference held by Coface on 22 January 2013 has confirmed the complexity of a situation where, more than ever, the world seems to be «split in two»: advanced versus emerging countries. If the declining power of the United States still appears very relative, it is facing serious problems concerning the reduction of its fiscal deficits.Mehr Informationen
Investors have made it one of their favourite havens during this period of recurrent crises, from global finance to sovereign debt in the eurozone. Proverbial political stability, sound management of public finances, a complex but attractive tax system, many very innovative small businesses and a flexible labour market.Mehr Informationen
When public sector job creation runs out of steam, eyes turn to the private sector, which alone seems able to offer a solid basis for recovery in the months to come through investment and the hiring of workers.Mehr Informationen
Panorama company insolvencies - Autumn 2012: Although the overall number of insolvencies continues to decline (-1.8% between September 2011 and August 2012), the summer of 2012 confirms the trend that began last Spring with an important growth in their cost (+17%) and a correlative increase in unemployment (+3.3%).Mehr Informationen