Ghana

Growth will normalise after a strong recovery

Ghana’s public debt default and the ensuing balance of payments crisis, plus the restrictive policy mix implemented to stabilise the economy, weighed on growth in 2022-2023. The recovery was strong, and even started sooner than expected, in Q4 2023. In 2024, growth was mainly supported by strong activity in the extractive industries (gold and oil), while in 2025, agriculture (rebound in cocoa production thanks to more favourable weather and a reduction in diseases) and services (trade, transport, ICT) were the main drivers, alongside durably robust gold demand. This is consistent with the concomitant strong rebound in private consumption. Consumer confidence recovered on back of improving economic conditions and rising income, as inflation eased sharply in step with tighter fiscal and monetary policies, and in tune with substantial appreciation of the cedi.

In 2026, growth will remain robust in the wake of 2025’s showing but is expected to move back to its potential. Barring extreme climate shocks, agriculture (around 21% of GDP and one-third of employment) should remain supportive, especially as the outlook for cocoa beans production has improved. Current forecasts for Ghana’s production in the 2025-2026 marketing year are at 750,000 MT, a 25% increase relative to the previous season. The farmgate price of cocoa for the season was set at GHS 41,392 per tonne (around USD 3,800 at the current exchange rate), as global prices fell to around USD 3,000 per tonne in March 2026 due to increased supply from Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, on top of lower demand from chocolate manufacturers. Cocobod (a public entity which supports the production, processing and marketing of cocoa) will continue the free supply of fertilisers, insecticides, fungicides and spraying machines, which will increase the resilience of production to weather fluctuations and diseases. Oil production (around 200,000 barrels per day in 2025) will be stable at best as oil demand is expected to remain lacklustre. Although the oil industry will benefit from the Pecan Oil Field project (potential output of 80,000 to 110,000 barrels per day), it is expected to come on stream in 2028-29, at the earliest. Gold production should remain robust, after a record 5.1 million ounces estimated in 2025, mainly driven by small scale and artisanal mining. The creation of Goldbod (a public entity which will control and develop the gold sector) in 2025 by the government should support the income of small-scale miners by rationalising gold purchases and reducing smuggling, which leads to significant revenue losses. However, large-scale mining could experience production declines as Ghana’s gold mines are ageing. Additional investment in large-scale mining could be encouraged by global demand for gold, which is reaching new peaks. However, new exploration remains very expensive and highly complex in terms of technology requirements. Services will remain the main growth driver. Investment in ICT will continue increasing, as the authorities will continue to promote the Digital Economy Policy (improving internet connectivity, digital public services, fintech, etc.). Trade and transport will also continue to benefit from solid consumption as inflation is forecast to remain within the target range (8+-2%). This means that Bank of Ghana, which is well into its easing cycle – the policy rate was lowered from 28.0% in June 2025 to 15.5% in January 2026 – has sufficient headroom to make a few additional cuts in 2026, which would improve access to credit and stimulate both consumption and private investment. The contribution of the public sector to growth should remain muted as consolidation measures will continue to limit spending capacity.

Fiscal discipline has stabilised public finances. Debt restructuring soon to be completed

Ghana’s public finances have considerably improved as part of the USD 3 billion ECF Arrangement with the IMF that was approved in May 2023 after the country agreed to restructure its debt under the G20 Common Framework. Ghana’s domestic debt restructuring was completed in 2023 whereby the government swapped medium- and long-term securities for lower-interest bonds with longer maturities. A USD 13.1 billion Eurobond restructuring was subsequently completed in late 2024 following which three payments to bondholders under the restructuring memorandum (USD 1.4 billion total) were made in 2025. The last portion of the restructuring process, for bilateral (USD 2.8 billion) and commercial (USD 2.4 billion) debt has yet to be completed, but has reached an advanced stage, with agreements signed with main bilateral creditors, agreements in principle reached with major private lenders and negotiations under way with the remaining creditors. As the performance under the IMF programme was deemed satisfactory, the fifth review unlocked a USD 385 million disbursement in December 2025.

The fiscal consolidation measures implemented by the authorities are broad and target both revenue and expenditure. However, the reduction of the deficit in 2025 was mainly due to spending cuts, as revenue-related measures such as widening the tax base, improved tax compliance, administrative efficiency, reforming SOEs, etc. take some time to fully produce their effects. Besides the wage bill, which exceeded the planned limits due to pay adjustments and recruitments, all other categories of expenditure (goods and services, capital expenditure, social spending, etc.) landed within or below their targets. Importantly, interest payments were also lower than expected thanks to the easing of monetary policy for the domestic portion and a stronger cedi on the external part. In 2026, the government’s main target under the Fiscal Responsibility Framework of a primary surplus of 1.5% of GDP should be met. Revenue should trend higher on back of robust economic growth, a slight increase in mining-related revenue, as well as the increased use of digital tax systems to improve tax collection and seal revenue loopholes. External debt servicing partially resumed in 2025, leading to a progressive increase in interest payments, which means that spending should remain tightly controlled, limiting the scope for non-priority public investment. External financing needs should remain relatively contained and will be covered mainly by programme loan disbursements from the IMF and the World Bank. Broadly speaking, the completion of the restructuring process, combined with robust growth and fiscal discipline, should restore debt sustainability, while the public debt-to-GDP ratio should continue to decrease in the medium-term.

External position to remain robust despite commodity price volatility

Ghana’s external situation has considerably improved thanks to the suspension of a large portion of its external debt servicing, high gold prices and restored investor confidence after the advancement of the restructuring process. It should remain resilient despite commodity price volatility. The current account surplus will shrink slightly, mainly due to a smaller trade surplus. Gold exports will remain solid, supported by record high prices, but crude oil and cocoa prices are expected to trend lower for both commodities as supply will increase while demand slightly weakens. Consequently, import growth is likely to outpace that of exports as strong domestic demand for machinery, transport equipment and consumer goods will offset lower petroleum prices. Ghana is a net importer of refined oil products due to the lack of refining capacity. The services deficit will continue to be fuelled by payments for freight, financial services and services linked to the operation and development of extractive industries. The primary income deficit, which is mainly exacerbated by the repatriation of dividends from foreign companies in recent years, should increase with the resumption of external debt servicing. However, this will be mostly offset by the secondary income surplus, which will continue to benefit from remittance inflows from the diaspora, most of which is settled in Nigeria, the UK and the US. Ghana’s economic and fiscal performance has considerably improved in the past two years, which has increased investor confidence and resulted in stronger capital inflows, including for FDI (from 1.6% of GDP in 2023 to 2.4% in 2025). The cedi is hence expected to remain stable. Foreign exchange reserves covered around 5.7 months of imports in December 2025.

Political stability in an increasingly unstable region

John Mahama, previously President of Ghana between 2012 and 2017 and candidate of the social-democratic National Democratic Congress (NDC), secured a second non-consecutive term in the 2024 presidential elections after willing 57% of the votes. He beat Mahamudu Bawumia, candidate of the New Patriotic Party (NPP, centre-right). The result was widely expected as the image of Nana Akufo-Addo and the NPP, which held power between 2017 and 2024, had been tarnished by the debt crisis, falling living standards and worsening poverty. This automatically fuelled the popularity of the opposition party and brought into play the usual bipartisan confrontation and alternation. The NDC also holds a two-thirds majority in Parliament, with 184 seats out of 276, while the NPP secured 88 seats, giving the government ample room to implement its policies. The government’s track record for the first year is positive overall. The commitments made by Ghana regarding fiscal discipline have been respected, economic conditions have improved and investor confidence has broadly been restored. While political stability in Ghana is expected to continue, the social situation is still weak. The cost-of-living crisis has eroded living standards and poverty rates have increased: over 53% of the population lives with less than USD 4.20 per day. Furthermore, considering the share of agriculture in employment, climate shocks remain a major risk as they disproportionately affect the poor. Continuing prudent fiscal management, while ensuring that social spending is sufficient to improve living standards, will be a major challenge.

On the external front, Ghana enjoys strong ties with China, a major destination for its crude oil and manganese exports. China is a major creditor. Relations with Western partners and international institutions are also sound. Furthermore, the highly contested anti-LGBT+ bill was scrapped when Parliament was dissolved in 2024. Although it has been reintroduced as a private member’s bill by 10 MPs, it still must go through an entire parliamentary process and continues to pose major legal challenges, making it fairly unlikely that it will be passed in the near term. Ghana also continues to promote regional integration within ECOWAS and is a major spokesbody. This is even more important as the security situation in West Africa continues to deteriorate. The inability of the military juntas of the Alliance des États du Sahel to secure their territories creates insurgency risks in most neighbouring countries, including Ghana. The security situation in the north of the country remains tense due to the infiltration from Burkina Faso of armed jihadist groups affiliated to Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.

Last updated: February 2026